[1]曾凡辉　王新强　曾耀晖.基于分位匹配法对龙岩市一次降水过程检验分析[J].大众科技,2022,24(08):26-29.
　Test and Analysis of a Precipitation Process in Longyan City Based on Quantile Matching Method[J].Popular Science & Technology,2022,24(08):26-29.
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基于分位匹配法对龙岩市一次降水过程 检验分析()
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《大众科技》[ISSN:1008-1151/CN:45-1235/N]

卷:
24
期数:
2022年08
页码:
26-29
栏目:
资源与环境
出版日期:
2022-08-20

文章信息/Info

Title:
Test and Analysis of a Precipitation Process in Longyan City Based on Quantile Matching Method
作者:
曾凡辉1　王新强1　曾耀晖2　
（1.福建省龙岩市气象局，福建 龙岩 361000；2.福建省长汀县气象局，福建 长汀 366300）
关键词:
分位匹配; 偏差订正; 短时强降水
Keywords:
quantile matching deviation correction short-term heavy precipitation
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
利用欧洲中期天气预报中心2019—2021年逐时降水预报资料及同时段区域站观测降水资料，文章采用分位匹配技术对福建省龙岩市境内降水预报进行模式偏差订正及分析。结果表明：结合雨区分布、降水空报率、漏报率、准确率、命中率以及TS评分等预报检验指标来看，龙岩分位匹配订正产品对于大雨，尤其是暴雨及以上量级降水具有较好的订正能力，且地形对降水增幅作用在该产品中有一定体现；龙岩位匹配订正产品在保留ECMWF优势的同时，对于ECMWF模式的订正效果显著，对其系统性偏差取得了较好的订正效果。
Abstract:
Using the hourly precipitation forecast data of European Medium Range Weather Forecast Center from 2019 to 2021 and the observed precipitation data of regional stations in the same period, the model deviation of precipitation forecast in Longyan City, Fujian Province is corrected and analyzed by using quantile matching technology. The results show that the Longyan quantile matching correction product has good correction ability for heavy rain, especially heavy rain and above precipitation, and the effect of terrain on precipitation growth is reflected in the product in combination with the distribution of rain areas, the rate of missing reports, accuracy, hit rate and TS score the Longyan level matching correction product not only retains the advantages of ECMWF, but also has a significant correction effect on ECMWF mode, and has achieved a good correction effect on its systematic deviation.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
【收稿日期】2022-06-20 【作者简介】曾凡辉（1993－），男，福建龙岩人，福建省龙岩市气象局助理工程师，从事天气预报和数值模拟相关工作。
更新日期/Last Update: 2022-09-19